![]() ![]() In particular, the authors look at the effects of a higher proportion of women and Hispanics in the force, as well as the military’s efforts to actively recruit more African-American officers. Klein and Cancian also address claims that changing demographics in the military may be driving the decline in scores. ![]() Because the decline concerns all college graduates, it has likely also impacted the other military services. Therefore, the authors posit, as more people who may not have obtained four-year degrees in the past receive them, more people who would otherwise not be eligible for commissions become viable applicants. So what’s causing this steady decline in GCT scores? According to Klein and Cancian, the decline in officer quality might actually have to do with the fact that more people are receiving college degrees than ever before: The authors note that the decrease of GCT scores over time correlates to an increase in the college participation rate during that same period.Ī four-year degree is required to become an officer. Why more Americans going to college might be having unexpected effects on officer quality In other words, today’s Marine officers scored nearly an entire standard deviation worse, on average, than their predecessors 34 years ago. Taken together, the 8.2-point drop in average score represents 80 percent of an entire standard deviation’s decline (from 10.5 in 1980 to 9.6 in 2014).Over 34 years, the average score decreased by 6.6 percent, from 130.9 to 122.1.At the upper end of the distribution, 4.9 percent of those taking the test scored above 150 in 1980 compared to 0.7 percent in 2014.In 2014, only 59 percent exceeded that score. Eighty-five percent of those taking the test in 1980 exceeded a score of 120, which was the cut-off score for officers in World War II.Through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to the Marine Corps, Klein and Cancian received data on the GCT scores of all officers-46,000 altogether-from Fiscal Year 1980 to Fiscal Year 2014.Īfter analyzing the data, the authors uncovered a startling trend: A statistically significant decline in scores over the past 34 years, the magnitude of which, the authors say, “is relevant given the distribution of the scores.” TBS is a six-month course that all Marine officers attend after completing two prior requirements: Obtaining a four-year college degree and attending Officer Candidate School. The Marine Corps, however, still administers the GCT to officers at The Basic School (TBS) because it strongly predicts their success there. Designed to have a mean score of 100, with a standard deviation of 20, 120 was used as the bar for entry into Marine Officer Candidate School (OCS).Īfter World War II, the military replaced the GCT with the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB). military? The GCT dates back to World War II, when it was developed to help classify incoming servicemen. ![]() ![]() So what exactly is the GCT, and how are the scores used by the U.S. The General Classification Test (GCT) from World War II to present day So are today’s officers up to the task? In new research, Brookings’ Michael Klein and Tufts University’s Matthew Cancian-a former Marine officer who served in Afghanistan-take a closer look at this question and uncover a troubling pattern.Īfter analyzing test scores of 46,000 officers who took the Marine Corps’ required General Classification Test (GCT), Klein and Cancian find that the quality of officers in the Marines, as measured by those test scores, has steadily and significantly declined over the last 34 years. Decades later, at the height of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, 60 percent of new enlisted recruits met the high quality standard.īut what about military officers? Though commissioned officers comprise only about 16 percent of the force, they clearly have a major impact on the success of the military as a whole given their leadership role for their troops and responsibility for strategy and tactics. In 1977, 27.1 percent of new enlisted recruits met the military’s standard for being “high quality,” meaning that they possessed a high school diploma and above-average intelligence relative to the U.S. When the United States ended the draft and transitioned to an all-volunteer military in 1973, there was concern about who would join and whether the transition would negatively impact the quality of the force, which many suspected it would.Īs it turns out, the quality of the force as a whole actually increased over time. ![]()
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